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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15885)	12/22/1997 11:19:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) of 50167

To friends- off topic: I wrote yesterday when Japan was heavily down and Globex showed the last trade of SP at 948-949 that: This is the post on 21st-Dec 'My strategy calls for caution but a strong number if initiates a selloff should for you a signal of going long after the selling subsides whereas weaker number like a sharp drop in non farm payrolls or decline in durable goods order or reversal of cap utilisation should be ocassions to establish short positions -the market heading for a big surprise if what we raised here is right we are in a rally and will close above 8000 but if numbers start depicting a weak economy I will go with history and expect DOW to visit 6800 level by March of 98.On short term I will look at following upside resistance- 962 area on SPA 7780 on DOW and 275 on SOX I am looking at bonds to test 118 once again soon and a corresponding close of DOW above 8000- now we don't have a crystal ball to look into future at the moment keep yourselves glued to numbers emanating from various departments. I see silver lining in the dark clouds.' This is my first post after coming back from a week hgoliday-19th Dec- Where do we go from here- nice to say market goes lower but I don't think so good opportunity for hit and run chippping on short side which we are quite satisfied with but beyond that 'visiblity' is for me a potential on upside and a test of 1000- it is evident that SPA has failed to make higher highs rather lower highs but the supports have also been very solid numbers and economy points to good corporate earnings and so will be the performance of DOW- the support of 7600 is very important to watch but I see even if that is tested we will see a test of 275 on SOX a proxy of techs form me. My targets are a close above 275 and an attempt to 301 within 14 days- MSFT closing below 130 is not good for S&P revival anothr leader is lost if it fails 125 110 is the possible target. I will look at MSFT action closely although it is a stock specific situation but I will rather overemphasise action of this bell weather because of its possible impact on SPA- if 110 is tested 910 is on cards- 880 -890 SPA puts is a good trade but I only will sell 2 to one 850's to finance my purchase of 890's- however I will adivice this trade if SPA takes out 943 on closing basis or intraday retest 943 after once coming down and bouncing back. Will write more on Monday- SOX rebound has taken many with surprise but more is to come in my opinion. Potential divergence of SOX an SPA what we highlighted in last few weeks may soon be witnessed last night close above 262 was very positive signal.Lets see a confirmation with a second close above 262 a' The above two piosts hold well- I still continue to believe in this configuration SOX closed much below my resistance level SPA at 962 exactly where I predicted and DOW tookout 7780-I will like SOX to take out 275 by Friday and would like now a second close of INTC above 70 moreoxer I will also like to see TXN move up and close around 50- under these circumstances we will be in a place to make that last try to ilusive 301- slow and sure it will come- Is bottom firmly in place- for me 240 was a Mother of all tests- where are we going to see a break if INTC breaks and close below 70 and TXN takes out 43 we go back to 253 area. from there we will look further so far this is good enough to tread in these murky waters.However we need to be careful and vigilante if any of these resistance and support is taken out. It was the macro fundamentals which allowed me to predict even in face of worst of configurations i.e. globex down nearing 9 points 'to see a silver lining when Japan is closing first time below 15000' and indicate a corelation of levels which are met is something which fundamentals read of yield curves and big picture give me day in day out- from break of SOX at 280 and reversal at 240 I have continually provided the thread with what I think are levels which are possible. It does happen that I am wrong on individual stocks but you all should forgive me for that- the day I will stop sticking out my neck and forecasts future of the market I will rather not post on this thread. My purpose is not to take credit when I am right but with all fairness since so much has been written about my ASND INTC TXN goof up I am in perfect right to highlight just within 24 hours of my postings what constitutes a fair read and prediction.I will invite you all to pick what is my very few posts in last 30 days- I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised to read amongst wrongs a lot of good also.But please allow this 'mad man' to talk to his own self- If I would ever care for my reputation I will comment on post events not try to predict the course on day in day out basis. I will be a bull when required and a bear if market fundamentals show me that- this market is not about 'ideological war of bull and bears' it is about making money and 'proportion of your winning trades should be higher then your losing ones'. Like everyone else I want space and time for free flow of my ideas - wrong but atleast a counter point is provided- even in most bearish of sentiments I maintain a semblance of order and news of market reversals- as if bearish sentiment is already not in short supply to stick my counter point is something I assure you needs a lot of courage and to do it daily is something I am happy to do- I will request for no credits for when I am right but also no condemnation when markets act in a manner which is not in the spirit of my big picture- like every one else I have some feelings too and the last thing is to receive an early morning jolt out of nowhere- let bye bye gones and move on with life- we all are losers if we fail to love each other- let's proove that human respect and love can transcend all boundries- I pray on this Christmas that' God give me strength to not to look at what is wrong in others post but to help me to find what is right, assist me work with our shared strengths and bestow on me the unique gift of'discipline of ego' say as to say final goodbye to my innate 'overerblown ego and innate pride'- so help me God'. P.S.God bless you all- Merry Christmas once again and love to all your near and dear ones-If you are not dining with them don't forget to call your Mother on this day Father as well - but former is more important.

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