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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 119.17+4.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26135)12/23/1997 2:20:00 AM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (2) of 176388
 
Andrew,

CPQ did dominate the subzero market in Q3 with around 50-60%
marketshare. However, their share has dropped to 30% in Q4 as their competitors have prospered. There is very little brand loyalty amonst the first tier PC box makers. HWP, Packard Bell, and IBM now have subzero machines. In addition, there is a raft of other no-name vendors who produce competitive subzero machines. Hence, it is extremely unlikely that CPQ will dominate this market segment.

As for the high end server market CPQ must compete with SUNW and HWP as well as IBM and a host of other companies. At the low end of the server market, CPQ has #1 market share but it is not dominant. DELL's growth rate is much higher than CPQ's. Hence it is unlikely that CPQ will dominate this market segment either.

IMO, CPQ will remain among the top four companies for the next three years. After that, it is anyones guess what will happen.

There is a possibility that the increasingly efficient competition will slow the rate of DELL's expansion. However, it is not confirmed that that will happen yet. In the meantime, DELL is working on improving its direct model and gaining further efficiencies. DELL's business model is still unique. GTW and MUEI have not been able to copy it completely. Nor will CPQ be able to copy it anytime soon because of its mixed business models. CPQ can only approximate DELL's efficiencies because of its long standing channel relationships.

Thanks for stating the fundamental reasons for your bearish stance.
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