<<Don't see a managed currency like the yuan accepted as reserve currency. Too many opportunities for hanky-panky.>>
... is what i figured, but then inf signalled as much over the summer, and china signalled back w/ a 3% 'devaluation' ... the rest you saw, so i believe imf ala usa said okay, enough, let's do the hanky-panky together; thus the s.china.sea is a side show and the main event remains macro
<<The recent baby steps are a good thing but presently insufficient, IMO.>>
... the baby was being polite, and feeling voracious, and has plans to pave road here, belt over there, and given the one-off land reform now w/ political opposition just about all in jail or on way to jail, would have much collateral capacity to underpin printing that would be welcomed everywhere that would not choke to death on peking-duck force-fed liquidity
<<Nope, no qe4.>>
... i believe "so baked-in and in the cards", but four weeks is not long to wait for look-see.
<<No increase in interest rates, no qe4, no helicopter drops.>>
... agree that there would be no rate increase, and even if raised would go zirp then nirp in short order.
... no helicopter drops, yet, for that comes nearer the end of the end-game.
... 10-yrs t-bill can easily go to 1.5% and then 1%, and then we should hear the rotor blades popping.
<<A drag on growth. Deflationary. >>
... between in-deflation and de-inflation 'they' shall wisely choose hyper inflation
Get gold, silver, etc.
... regardless of whether in- or de-, but do need paper metal to blow up, and paper metal would blow up as any sovereign authority w/ newly minted global reserve currency status continues to add gold and due to imf requirement keep reporting the monthly adds
<<Remember, debt is consumption advanced, savings is consumption delayed.>>
... don't tell me about it. i have shoved back into the future my would-be toy automobile for so long i no longer remember why i wanted it in the first place.
<<Consumption advanced means production stalled or delayed in the future, and with ZIRP, means production enhanced in the face of slackened demand because capital is cheap. Ergo, deflation as capital becomes badly allocated and the inevitable writing off takes place with misallocated capital.>>
... take the case of uber, someone on my e-mail blog just got accosted by offer for syndication to little fellows and fellowettes the coming subscription to uber ipo, and the offer is tagged w/ the usual but ridiculous 20% profit override and 2% annual management fee off of the syndicator's allotment of ipo shares.
while uber, by software and cyber system indeed improves pricing and operation efficiency, would place a few taxi drivers out of living-wage and into poverty. societally speaking net net not exactly good. misallocation of resources ala fiat money inflation in france, possibly, and only time can tell.
<<Ergo, bankruptcies, crashes, lowered corporate profits, interregna, etc. all of which are starting.>>
... yes, but c2, stop with the sexy talk!
<<Ergo, wait patiently for inexorable script to unfold.>>
... yes, certainly holding fire and paper.
<<I've knowingly missed opportunities because script is not written and timing is everything. But the certainty of darkness and the huge opportunities to come pale in comparison to fretting about stock market's zigs and zags.>>
... reminder, the script is here, but the branch-ing is still open mises.org [fiat money inflation in france]
... mean time the coconut (just turned 11) in grade 6 is on 5-days school trip to visit museums, sample foods, and taking in a show, staying w/ selected roommate in boutique hotel, etc etc, thus encouraging the slightly less school-enthusiastic jack (age 5, foundation year, pre-primary grade 1) to try harder so as to stand a chance to get into the same middle school |
