Z and all,
I'm still here.
Battered, but far from out. In fact, am further in, will do some more buying either if QNTM goes down to 15-16 (I don't expect it, but just in case.... I didn't expect 19 either) or after SEG reports. I think QNTM management was just being overly conservative in and after the CC when lowering DLT growth expectations. People don't get sued for being overly cautious (Novel riskfree idea: "Hey, you guys said it was only going to be 20% growth, not 40%; I would have bought more if I'd have known that! Look at all the money I lost. Let's have a class action for everyone who thought about buying between Dec. 10 and Jan 20, but didn't because of this egregiously misleading public comment!"). Undoubtedly there are some transition issues, and some of the growth from last quarter was borrowed from this one. That is, they apparently misjudged the greater media demand then, and at first thought it might continue, but it obviously won't. So average the two quarters together, you still come out with pretty good growth. Plus some fallout from Asia. Creats some uncertainty about future growth, to be sure. However, Europe, it seems, may be coming to life in tech sales. So will Y2K stuff; people will be running redundant systems soon as they set up and test their fixes. They need to backup both systems. DLT7000 will, I would guess, be the machine of choice for that. I don't see server sales growth at 20% yet, closer to 40% seems more likely to me, from what I have read (although the Asian wild card always looms mysteriuosly in the background). I would also wonder about WDC being able to compete effectively both in desktop and enterprise with their MR transition isssues. They have a history of being pretty focussed, and if I were them, I would focus first on defending my share on the desktop, then later on move more aggressively to enterprise.
Put it all together, and even the bulls are on a buyers strike until the next few months gets a little more clear. But I don't think Fujitsu is suicidal, and I don't think Samsung or Hyundai will have the financial wherewithal to be major factors in the drive sector for at least a few years, if ever. The major worry would be IBM, but they want to make money too.
This whole thing (he said in a barely perceptible whisper) is way, way overblown, and a great (dare I say it? nah, I'll let you guess the next words. but they begin with "B" and "O") ....
Have a fun holiday (don't total up your portfolio, and especially don't compare it to last September, 3 short months ago!) and a Great New Year.
Best wishes,
Sam |
