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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals
ARIA 23.990.0%Feb 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (3968)11/4/2015 11:08:40 AM
From: tktom  Read Replies (1) of 4474
 
They re-affirmed their guidance for the year. Quite honestly modest changes in pona sales are pretty irrelevant to the stock price here. Pona is just going the chug along around these levels until they have more data.
I have to disagree with you here Peter on your thoughts above. They added 50 new patients in the quarter, and yet the revenue in the US was flat. It seems to me that they most likely had a good number of patients stop therapy as well in the quarter for revenue to be flat. There should be a continuous increase in revenue quarter after quarter at such a low level of net sales.

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The short term risk here is that their $130-$140 million revenue number for 2015 is based on settlement with the French authorities on pricing. I think that is $23-$25 million in revenue or so. If agreement isn't reached, look out below as Ariad will really miss their sales number bad. It seems to me the French authorities are in a powerful negotiating position with Ariad in pricing at this point, which could upset the pricing model for all of the EU going forward.
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