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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC)
WDC 139.09-0.8%Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam who wrote (8311)12/23/1997 12:20:00 PM
From: John Wang  Read Replies (2) of 11057
 
Sam: Which of the three top HDD makers will appreciate more from here is anybody's call. QNTM certainly looked very appealing before Brown pre-announced earning shortfall. Not counting DLT, QNTM would have been in the same shape as the other two even though QNTM is supposed to participate in the mid and high end desktop and SCSI. But, even DLT had transition issue and slow down.
In my opinion, the HDD maker that is the most efficient, highest yield, lowest cost will accelerate up in share price. If DLT market is as good as everyone believes, I agree that QNTM will be the top one. But, you should never be so sure about it. Competition may spring up suddenly and change DLT's outlook. I admire QNTM's business. But, I don't think that it is invincible.
Korean and Fujitsu have been gaining market share. The Korean turmoil and IMF mandate may put a damper on Korean expansion. At, least, OEM's in US may be weary about them being a long term player. The current pervasive thinking is that the price war will last at least six months or longer. What if the price war suddenly abates? Remember no analyst came out and predict this sudden price war and severe earning erosion? Who can guarantee that they will not be wrong again?
John
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