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Technology Stocks : NT Accounting Software (GPSI, PSQL, SOTA, TMBS)
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To: Alan A. Hicks who wrote (116)12/23/1997 3:12:00 PM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) of 149
 
Alan:

Thanks for the thoughts. The street isn't very big in total coverage. Paul dravis - the analyst at robbie stephens comes from a very "shirt and tie" corporate background and doesn't understand the power of a loyal var channel. I still feel this is one of the more risky quarters because acuity isn't fully released and the y2k compliant version of mas 90 isn't out.

With the y2k compliant version of MAS 90, the company will be driving a large part of their installed base to a maintenance business which should add substantially to predictability. I just don't have a good feel on the quarter yet.

I'm nervous about continued tech "wreckage" next year and feel that fabulous relative performance in a stock like SOTA (which it's had lately) is that it won't go down as much. Still, meeting or exceeding expectations won't hurt the stock.

I also beleive strongly that a number of the larger players (PSFT/BAANF) are running out of growth at the high end and will make noise about entering this space - that's a major change in distribution channel - they'll probably fail, but it could make for ugly psychology. Look at the performance of Vantive stock, flat to down over time despite fabulous growth, but the psychology is more negative than ever due to increasing competition and fears of pricing pressure.

You may remember the early network operating systems battles between Microsoft and Novell - even with massively lower prices, MSFT couldn't unseat Novell's VARS due to the massive investment they made in learning the technology, the same principles will apply here.

I like the story, but I want to get comfortable with the this tough quarter before i add to my position.

TD
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