John Bel Edwards... winner in Louisiana Gov election
First Dem Gov in a while in a red state
A breath of fresh air emerges... second line parade kicking off
John Bel Edwards beats David Vitter to become Louisiana's next governor
State Rep. John Bel Edwards, a relatively unknown Democrat from a rural Amite, will be the state's next governor after toppling Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., in one of the biggest political upsets in the state's history.
No state in the Deep South has had a Democratic governor since Kathleen Blanco left office eight years ago. A Democrat hasn't even come within spitting distance of statewide office in Louisiana since 2008, when former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu won reelection.
That all changed Saturday (Nov. 21) as Edwards came out of nowhere to take down a Republican candidate once seen as unbeatable in a solidly Red State.
Edwards election day efforts focused on New Orleans. He met up with U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond in the afternoon at Spears & Spears law firm in St. Roch to make phone calls and send encouraging texts to supporters. Several people in "John Bel Edwards for Governor" T-shirts could also be seen boarding a school bus outside the law firm's building, presumably help the Democrat turn out the vote in other parts of the city.
An Edwards administration is expected to be a marked shift from Gov. Bobby Jindal's approach to public policy over the past eight years. The Democrat is expected to bring Medicaid expansion to Louisiana shortly after taking office, meaning thousands of more Louisiana residents could have access to health insurance in a couple of months. Teachers unions and other organized labor groups will also have more of a voice with Edwards than they ever had with Jindal.
It wasn't thought a Democrat had a decent shot at winning a statewide race in 2015, let alone the governor's race. A few rising stars in the party, like New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, choose not to run for higher office this election cycle because their prospects of winning looked so weak.
But Edwards proved them wrong. A West Point graduate who served in the Legislature for eight years, Edwards led the primary with 40 percent of the vote, built up big leads in the polls and bulked up his fundraising during the runoff. The Democrat emphasize his conservative views on topics like abortion and guns throughout the campaign, in order to stave off concerns that he was too liberal for Louisiana.
Edwards attracted a surprising number of endorsements from law enforcement groups, such as the Louisiana Sheriffs Association, that are more inclined to favor Republicans. The Louisiana State Troopers Association, which rarely endorses gubernatorial candidates, backed Edwards.
The outcome of the election, however, may have turned more on Vitter's weaknesses than Edwards' appeal. The senator's years-old prostitution scandal and difficult relationships with several Republicans in the state proved to be too much to overcome. Vitter has had "high negatives" in political polling for years -- meaning many voters have an unfavorable view of him -- but that hadn't kept him from winning campaigns -- until now.
After winning re-election to his Senate seat in 2010, Vitter had been regarded nationally as one of those rare politicians able to survive an embarrassing sex scandal. But Louisiana voters apparently care more about the personal history of the next governor than a member of Congress. His connection to prostitution dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly among Christian conservatives, once his most ardent supporters.
The senator was also never fully able to unite the Republican party behind his candidacy following the primary. One of Vitter's Republican primary opponents, Lt. Governor JayDardenne, ended up endorsing Edwards. The other major Republican primary candidate, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, refused to endorse anyone, which was seen as a rejection of Vitter's candidacy.
Dardenne and Angelle have both complained that Vitter unfairly attacked them during the primary election. The candidates used words like "vicious" and "liar" to describe Vitter during primary debates. Many of those bitter soundbites from the GOP officials wound up being used in anti-Vitter commercials and direct mail pieces during the runoff campaign.
Vitter's frosty relationships with other Republican elected officials also caught up with him. A day before the primary, a private investigator hired by Vitter was arrested for spying on Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand and state Sen. Danny Martiny, R-Kenner, among others. The incident gave Normand, a longtime political foe of Vitter's, a platform to highlight his disagreements with the senator.
But some of Vitter's problems may not have had much to do with him at all. Gov. Bobby Jindal's unpopularity in Louisiana may have hurt Vitter's campaign. Recent polling shows Louisiana voters are tired of Jindal, and could be looking for a big change in the Governor's Mansion. Vitter and Jindal don't get along even though they share many of the same views on public policy.
Democrats paint Edwards' victory as the resurgence of the party in Louisiana, but experts warn against jumping to that conclusion. Vitter may have lost, but that doesn't mean most other Republicans would have.
"A Republican ought to win automatically," said Charlie Cook, a Louisiana native and well-regarded election prognosticator in Washington D.C. "If Vitter's name had never come up in the D.C Madam case, we would be looking at a 10 to 15 point win" for the Republican.
Edwards appears to recognize that the Republican brand hasn't necessarily been permanently tarnished in Louisiana. The Democrat has promised to govern from the middle and is expected to appoint Democrats and Republicans alike to cabinet positions. For example, Dardenne is likely on a short list to fill a high-profile position in the Edwards administration.
Edwards may have to govern in a bipartisan manner, not just by choice. The governor-elect has a serious budget crisis on his hands, and will need a two-thirds vote of the GOP-controlled Legislature for many of his proposals to fix Louisiana's finances.
"I think that the Legislature and executive branch should cooperate fully," said Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego, who is likely to remain atop the state senate in 2016.
But not everyone is excited to see Edwards head up the executive office. The Democrat makes many of the state's leading business groups nervous. Edwards has not been supportive of the school choice movement, including charter schools and the state voucher program. Business leaders also believe he is more inclined to roll back their tax credits and incentive programs to fix the state's budget problems than a Republican would be.
Edwards will have to find an enormous amount of money somewhere to shore up the state's finances. Louisiana is wrestling with a $500 million shortfall in its current budget cycle and a projected $1 billion budget gap in the next fiscal year. And Edwards isn't looking to just maintain state services, he is also seeking to double funding to higher education over the next four years -- which will require even more resources.
This election also has implications beyond state government. Vitter is now vulnerable headed into his re-election campaign for the U.S. Senate next year and is more likely to draw stronger opponents as his weaknesses have been exposed.
Angelle supporters are already printing up Senate campaign bumper stickers for him and said he is likely to jump into the race. Mitch Landrieu, the term-limited New Orleans mayor, has been coy about whether he would consider running.
Political reporter Kevin Litten contributed to this report. |
