Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.94

+1.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (11191)	12/23/1997 4:37:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) of 77400

Here's my take, first of all I won't be short till Feb, too long a time frame. .05 surprise is already priced in. If they don't BEAT numbers signif., the stock tanks. No news to drive it here in the mid-term. I just see a slow grind to 46 or lower based on the chart. 46 is your 200-day moving ave and the Oct low. It is a natural place for the stock to make a stand, but I don't think it will hold. It could go lower. Current estimates have not been cut since Asian debacle. So you've got a stock trading at 30 times earnings which in the BEST case scenario will only grow at 24% for '98 to '99. I don't think it will even come close to those estimates. Sure, CSCO only has 7% direct Asian exposure, but the people who buy from CSCO have much, much more. If their business slows, their rate of capital expenditures will slow thus causing CSCO's business to slow. Even if this proves to be totally inaccurate. The mkt suspects this and the stock will be driven lower becasue of fear. Trust me I know, I've been long in the oil drillers for the past year. They haven't been affected by the asian crisis AT ALL and won't be, but mkt has pounded them. Don't make the same mistake I did. Get out while you still have nice fat profits. Mine are dwindling. Good Luck! -Lucretius

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