Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 168.76

+0.3%

Dec 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (4096)	12/23/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: Robert Schling	Read Replies (4) of 10921

Given the dark cloud hanging over SEA, I believe that most of the SOX's fate will be decided during the January earnings reporting period. People have become so focused on inflation lately that they have forgotten the other driver for stock prices: earnings. Most "experts" are forecasting S&P earnings growth of less than 10%. If tech companies come out with cautious or negative forward looking statements during January (I remember Oracle and KLIC), the plug may be taken out of the earnings side of the equation, with a downward P/E adjustment. It will take time, and some "sucker" rallies... A bottoming in 6 months seems reasonable to me. Some good long-term stocks like AMAT and PRIA still have plenty of downside left IMHO, because they went totally off the radar screen this summer and still trade above (!!!) their average price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios. Of cource, AMAT always deserves a premium because of its industry "gorilla" status. P/E's are meaningless for these cyclical stocks. Just my .02 worth. Robert

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