John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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Hawkmoon

To: John Pitera who wrote (17369)	11/30/2015 10:41:23 AM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation of 33421

Hi John, As the saying goes, "we live in interesting times"! I think it's very obvious to many observers (who look at the $NYA chart in your post) that the topping process in 2007-08, especially the failed rebound in mid-2008 looks very similar to where the chart is today. Even with this nearly identical setup, it's too early to say this market will mirror what happened then. The course of events that were in the process of unfolding during the late spring and early summer of 2008 shook the foundations of our global society, economically speaking. Lack of faith in the system rose dramatically fast!! For many, there was no place to turn. While I can see plenty of trouble facing us today, I see nothing at this moment in time that would come close to a parallel from 2008. There's no doubt in my mind that faith in the system has not been restored completely. This is a concern which is not likely to fade in the short run. What has changed (to a large extent) is the way hedges are formed and risk is being spread. As many of your posts have pointed out, there are plenty of questions about CDS and other derivatives, how they are handled and what sort of transparency are in these markets. Plenty of questions but nothing near the point we were at in 2008 where people were asking "which pillar of our economic system is going to collapse next"??!! To expect the market to tank in 2016 the way it did in 2008 seems too close to doom and gloom for me. I think there actually are reasons to believe we could have a decent year in the US stock markets in 2016. I do understand those who are only seeing the downside, as there are plenty of headwinds which may or may not derail stocks. The way war has escalated in Africa, Eastern Europe and Western Asia is a huge issue and is naturally a major concern going forward.

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