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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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From: weatherguru12/1/2015 2:53:29 PM
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TideGlider

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I have to say...this is tough. This month looks chaotic. To me...the pattern looks to "brew" for a couple of weeks. A solar flare ~Dec 16 should open the flood gates. We'll see.

When I say "brew", there's a build up of instability (temperature gradients). The news-worthy events will be when the high-pressure on the west coast U.S. recedes and allows the cold-core lows to drop down the California coastline. This happened Thanksgiving with cold air low dropping from Seattle to San Francisco + eventual ice storm in Oklahoma once it crossed the mountains.

I don't know when it's going to happen. I say ~Dec 16 due to solar flare + observed warming in the stratospheric polar jet. This warming destabilizes the stratospheric polar jet to a point it ripples...this creates an upper-level wind pattern to support a loopy jet stream with cold air intrusions east of Rockies. This means a lot of variability.
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