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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 168.76+0.3%Dec 11 3:59 PM EST
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To: Robert Schling who wrote (4103)12/23/1997 8:18:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Robert,

Re::Most "experts" are forecasting S&P earnings growth of less than 10%.

Most of the stocks in the equipment sector are 1)not in the S&P and 2)will see substatially better average growth over the next 2-3 years than 10%

ReSome good long-term stocks like AMAT and PRIA still have plenty of downside left IMHO, because they went totally off the radar screen this summer and still trade above (!!!) their average price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios

Dave Dhillon from the AMAT thread called AMAT's IR earlier this week and asked a few questions. Most noticable were the fact that AMAT said they were sticking to BOTH their Q1 and FY98 eps forecasts. Secondly, they said to date they have had no order cancellations. Assuming this is the case and the Street realizes it anytime soon, AMAT will not be trading anywhere near the current range IMHO. BTW, here are some #'s for AMAT for everyone saying it is nowhere near bottom. KIM that most of these bottoms occurred when there was panic that there would be no earnings whatsoever because of a downturn. Currently that is not the case, so IMO we shouldn't even approach the trough levels.

AMAT 5-yr avg. 1996 trough 1997 peak Current level
PSR 2.1 1.0 4.9 2.6
P/B 4.2 1.9 6.5 4.0
P/FY98 - 7.4 25.0 11.6
(First Call)

Just my .02, but grab 'em while you can.

Brian
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