Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6054)	12/23/1997 8:49:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (5) of 95453

TDW'ers:From the Boring Portfolio at Motley Fool: The demise of Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) stock has been less dramatic -- more a steady ebbing away as opposed to a crescendo of selling... until today. TDW slumped $3 1/8 in active trading. Continuing worries about the degree to which the slowdown of Asian economies will reduce the demand for oil in 1998 combined today with rumors about softening in dayrates for oil drillers, and that sent stocks of exploration and production companies sharply lower. Among the worst hit was Tidewater, as an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney trimmed his earnings projections for the remainder of Tidewater's 1998 fiscal year (ending in March) and FY 1999. The analyst reportedly cited "slower than expected acceleration in day rates." The analyst revised his fiscal '98 EPS estimate to $4.13 from $4.30 and dropped his FY '99 forecast all the way to $4.95 to $5.60. Pretty impressive, huh? Perhaps so. One might want to consider that, according to First Call, the analysts' old estimates were at the top end of the range. Even with the revision, the analysts' FY98 forecast is above the consensus of $4.09. As for the FY99 estimate, it's now below the consensus of $5.17, but it still represents a projection that Tidewater will grow EPS by 20% over the coming year. For that kind of growth, investors can now pay less than 12-times projected earnings for the fiscal year ending in March, or less than 9-times projected profits for next fiscal year. Perhaps the best source of information and insight anywhere -- and from both bears and bulls -- is right here in The Motley Fool, in the Oil and Gas folder inside the section for Industry & Market Analysis analysis. You might also wish to review a summary of Tidewater's recent conference call. I also spoke briefly with the company today and received no information that would justify this sell-off. When I learn anything more, I'll pass it along.

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