Dear Rick,
this saying "DD = obsolete tech" is something that's being touted for 10 years right now. In fact, I'm quite tired of hearing it. Current problems are not due to technology obsoletion but because of overcapacity. Marginal players were sent out of biznes (Micropolis etc.), even the goliaths had to cut back on production (SEG !).
Harddisc alternatives: Magneto-Optical solutions (Fujitsu, Seiko), ZIp-drives (Iomega), Syquest line (SYQT), Bubble memory, CD-Writable, DVD writeable etc. But beware. DD companies are not sleeping either. Expect GMR discs and some other gizmos to hit the market in 1999. Should provide up to 40GB of storage. And You can imagine that many DD companies have already their foothold in the door.
In fact I believe that MR will be the big-hit this time. Companies like RDRT and QNTM should fare very well this quarter. WDC did the right thing to quit the laptop biz and concentrate on desktop MR where they are gaining market share since a couple of years, which should cushion their risk/reward situation by a big amount. SEG is a turnaround candidate and the most risky play in the sector for now (IMHO). APM is the clear laggard, small on tech leading edge, but there*s a saying that leading edge in tech is bleeding edge. If they completed their transition to MR, they could be a 100% appreciation candidate in quite a shourt amount of time.
My conclusion, don't risk leap puts in the DD sector. What is more, they are FAVOURABLY impacted by Asian currency depreciation and woes since they got their factories there (Malaysia, Philipines, Singapore etc.). So they could even outperform other tech sectors (Chips p.e.) over the intermediate term...
nest wishes
CROSSY |
