Stock investors have been asking this question long before you and I were born. I sometimes wonder if anyone can really know the answer to this question. I know lots of people think they know, but after all these years, I still wonder. Some will swear it is manipulation but I've never seen enough evidence to sway me. Some people will try, of that I am sure, but markets are markets and they have always bounced when oversold and corrected when overbought. I've always believed that when markets trade with thin volumes, manipulation (if you want to call it that) works easier than with high volumes.
We all saw what happened when ZEN hit 63 cents. Only the fools or the real courageous ones bought. If you were doubting your convictions like I was you were sitting tight and wondering how your figuring went wrong. I had a good wad of cash and I had nibbled at 75 cents. My order was only partially filled. I liked that because the sellers were not throwing it away. But ZEN kept slipping. It didn't matter that it was dragging its feet on the slide. It was hard to swallow.
Not everyone was worrying. The other crowd was whooping it up and claiming Armageddon was upon us. The chartists from that crowd had us from 47 something to 14 cents. Of course, after our bounce I read one of their top experts crowed that he called 64 something. I'm pretty good too after an event.
So when ZEN got so cheap the buyers got their nerve and stepped in. We all saw how quickly the price rose. Those with a scientific bend (those that wannabe and those that really are) would explain it this way. If you push a cork down in a bucket of water and release it, it will rise to the top. Just so I don't confuse that other crowd that ZEN is not cork, but a rare type of a one of a kind of graphite. I've done my DD.
Watching the buying with the volume into the close Monday, and the buying with the volume into the opening Tuesday you will see the upswing with high volume. Then the buying stopped. Nobody rang a bell, the price just plainly got too high and the buyers backed off. Whenever you do not have buyers to support a rising price, gravity takes hold. We saw that the rest of the day yesterday and also today.
But near the close you saw something. That was some high volume. Who caused it? I'm sure some was traders seeing a chance to sell and buy cheaper tomorrow. Maybe they are playing the trend. But I think there is a good chance they were the buyers who want to test how far they can drop the price. It cost them about 30,000 shares to do this. Some of this is probably others doing their thing but still helping their cause. Their game is to see how many shares they can scoop up before the price gets back to where they sold. Can they do it? who knows but that is the challenge.
Now I am not claiming any of this is true. I know enough science that this, at best is a hypothesis. The problem is to prove it. Then it becomes a theory. whatever way you think of the market, it is still a very interesting ............................................ However you fill in the blank, it doesn't change it one bit. The market is what it is.
I'll just end with this thought I heard many years ago. The market is like a woman. If you understand it you are either a physiologist or in need of one. |
