Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (19231)	12/24/1997 12:10:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (2) of 42771

Paul: >>If Japanese banks cannot get their money there may be more of a meltdown in the Nikkei which in turn will cause more Japanese companies to fail. IF Japan slips into the pit its 1929 all over again.>> I find this entire Asian exercise to be very positive. We are injecting liquidity into the world while bad loans and clannish business practices are falling by the wayside. Capitalism is sweeping the world and one look at what's happening in Asia tells us this process is being accelerated big time. I'm no fan of IMF bailouts in the wake of currency devaluations. But the political import of these moves are far reaching. As for your comment about 1929 all over again. Please, let's not get lathered up so quickly. 1929 was all about the mistake of not having enough liquidity in the banking system to keep rolling loans over etc. Once the public got wind the run was on. The Fed just sat there and froze. The entire world learned the lesson of '29. The answer Japan has at it's fingertips - simply print more money, period. This will jump start the reliquification process and we'll be off to the races. I'm not saying it's going to be a party. They've suffered enough over there. In my book they are 2 years beyond the curve in delaying the move to expand the money supply. What's really curious about the current state of affairs is the way the popular mindset is so quick to fall into the doom and gloom camp. Call me stupid or whatever, but I think this is going to be one big bear trap that nails more people - taking them completely out of the market prematurely. Asian devaluations are like the cold-war peace dividend which allowed the Federal Reserve here to nail Fed funds to the wall at 3% while the banks worked the spread like champions to restore their balance sheets in the wake of the savings and loan fiasco. They kept the the pedel all the way to the floor for 2-3 years before tightening in '94. If anything the Fed should be poised to press the pedal again now that all the excess capacity is floating around in Asian and elsewhere. I would like to see more leadership from the Administration in areas which radically cut spending and lower taxes. The world needs clear signals on what direction to take. We still have a muddled picture over here. And now this National Sales tax crap.... This is not what we need at the present time. I think the forces of liquidity will prevail. We have no choice. And you know what that does to financial assets in the short to intermediate run. Longer term we have to always watch out for inflation. That's the bigger problem. I enjoy your points. This is just my 2 cents. Merry Christmas!

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