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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Curlton Latts who wrote (11899)	12/24/1997 8:12:00 AM
From: Robert DeHaven	Read Replies (1) of 25960

Curl Man: It is true Barton flip flops a great deal. I think he and Michael Metz at Oppenheimer are abou the two worst prognosticators in the world. If you did the opposite of what those two said over the past few years it would have been wealth and riches. Enough said. The current situation in Asia IS relative and is going to have an impact on Chip stocks and fabs. Consider * Asia accounts for 50% of all semi conductor capital equipment spendingand 22 % of PC spending. Continuing financial conditions in Korea have been described by "The Economist" as "1929" 40% of their GDP has been wiped out. Though the Korean economy is tiny it is another domino falling in a region where there aren't many domino's left standing. Japan is suffering mightily. * The increased risk of this debacle spreading is great. Alex Brown reports now Taiwanese pricing for foundry wafers is softening. * With the Asian economic decrease in overall wealth and associated purchasing power there will be a necessary contraction in spending both in personal demand for PC's and capital investment. * The expectation of higher earnings estimates are now fears of earnings shortfalls...this is what leads stocks lower. CYMI will in my opinion to continue to outperform....but in what kind of market? If CYMI goes down ANOTHER 5% and the whole market drops 10% or 15% that's outperformance. Longer term is now the only hope IMHO: 98 won't be great...but things will be fine in '99. With all that draconian babble out...again. I remain fully committed and long CYMI for all the reasons you have said: repeatedly. However, you can not dismiss this Asian situation as less than it is. The US economy and the global economy will suffer due to the contractions occuring in Asia. Bet on it. Good luck, Bob

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