Zonagen (zona) - good buy? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: taxikid who wrote (1305)	12/24/1997 1:06:00 PM
From: Dauntless	Read Replies (1) of 7041

I guess I left some things out. Before the initial $10 mm Schering payment, Zona had $70 mm in the bank - should last quite some time and/or be used to acquire other products/compounds/technologies. The Schering deal totals $57 mm exclusive of royalties. These are milestone payments tied to NDA filing, FDA approval, etc. added to the $70 mm in bank. Your model takes Zona's market share down to .5% of the 20 million. Obviously that would be disastrous but IMO is an unrealistic assumption - As proof please consider 1)the drug has been shown to be effective in over 40% of men in clincal trials & 2)Schering would never have done the deal. Many folks don't realize what the Schering commitment entails. I would estimate that they will expend at least 20 manyears of effort & $$ internally filing the NDA & preparing for the launch of Vasomax. Marketing plans & materials, training several hundred salespeople, samples, fda compliance requiremnts, etc, etc. This is a much bigger commitment than $10 mm. - they would do all this for .5% share Finally, they ahve other products in the pipeline - but this is enough - unless you want to hear about it. Happy Holidays

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