| | | There are a lot of people on CoBF who do much more in depth DD on stocks and companies than people here on SI. I think that participating in SI gives a wrong impression that you can do lightweight two paragraph DD, use a Buffettology formula or two and easily outperform indexes. I had that impression for 10+ years. Then I went to CoBF and wow did I get outclassed. It's like going from a high school basketball team to NBA. And the problem is: it's not even clear that the guys on CoBF outperform consistently and a lot.
Anyway, I'm not picking on you or Shane or anyone else. If your methods work for you - great. It's nice when you don't have to spend countless hours on 10Ks/Qs/industry primers/etc./etc. and can have outperformance with less effort. I'm just not sure it works anymore. :) I learned probably 10-15 yrs ago that in depth drill-downs on stocks were not where my interests or strengths were. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy reading the reports from analysts that do that, but I realize it's currently not a strength I have and I haven't worked on it in a long time. I'm sure I drill down less now than I used to and instead focus on quantitative strategies, process, qualitative assessments, and behavioral aspects of investing.
But you're right, it's possible the quant approach may no longer work going forward, but we won't know for a while. There's a lot of good reasons to think the biases in the market that have existed in the past might be eliminated going forward.
edit: My last major effort at an industry drill-down was the energy sector earlier this year. It just hasn't worked out so well for me so far :-) |
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