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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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chris714

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56499)	1/1/2016 10:43:19 AM
From: MCsweet	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 78764

I like to get input from you and Spec and read CoBF and valueinvestor club boards because some people do dig deeper than I do and find things that I have missed. That being said, I agree that many of those in-depth analyses seem convincing but the stocks don't feel like much greater than 50%/50%. And actually I prefer not to buy stock in which other people have done thorough analyses. To be honest, I focused on a few techniques that seem to work 1. Buy on tax loss selling and failed debt offerings (stock/debt has to be attractive on fundamental basis). 2. Buying exchange-traded debt in front of dividend declaration and ex dates. Small effect, but consistent. 3. Rich-cheap swapping of exchange-traded debt (swap into higher yield of debt of similar credit quality and interest rate risk). Take a lot of time (don't do as much as I should), but this no-brainer approach is pretty easy and effective. 4. Buying based off of stock screens (has gotten harder) 5. Building a long-term relationship with a basket of interesting stocks so that you understand their dynamics. Try to maintain these relationships so that when they get attractive you can spot it and build a large position. 6. Somewhat related to 5, focus on microcap stocks that nobody else follows. For these stocks you want to understand as much as anyone else does about them. For larger stocks it is extremely difficult to get an edge -- don't focus on those as much since it is almost impossible to be the most knowledgeable on those. 7. Be humble and always open to recognizing you are wrong, but be willing to load up when the opportunity arises because there aren't a ton of great opportunities. I use FIdelity to calc my returns. In my main account, for 2015 it looks 8%-9% for me. Average annual returns are 3-years 19%ish (per year) 5-years 13%ish (per year) 10-years 17%ish (per year) Since 1/31/2003 41% (per year) Long-term returns are good because 2003 was 100%+ returns. Awesome year for microcap value. Also much easier to earn on a smaller capital base than I have now :) 5-year returns underperform S&P 500, partly due to a brush with mining and resource companies a few years back and basically allocating less time to my personal investments. I have been trying to allocate more time and bring my relative returns back up. MC

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