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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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Jurgis Bekepuris
Shane M
To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56510)1/1/2016 7:11:41 PM
From: Graham Osborn2 Recommendations  Read Replies (4) of 78764
 
This board hasn't blown up like this in years to my knowledge :) I hope the enthusiasm lasts. It's great to see this board a bit closer to what it was in the 90s. I still find the stream of consciousness format more useful than COBAF which is very fragmented although there are some great ideas there.

For myself I can say most of the stupid things I've done this year involved churning, which I define as trading based on market action rather than fundamentals (excluding occasional prudent stop losses). For this reason I've implemented a new rule that most on the board will adamantly disagree with but that I find establishes the right personal mindset. I call it the "rule of 3s." The rule says that any position I buy should have a decent shot at a triple. What I have found is that no matter how good my due diligence is I always underestimate the downside (this has been the case regardless of industry or market cap). So I try to view my portfolio more the way a venture capitalist would, and demand large upside to compensate me for all the times I screw up on the downside assessment.

The upshot of this is my longs are pretty much exclusively under 250M MC nowadays. I'd feel bad about this except that it is close to Buffett's constraint in the 50s.
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