Re: energy.
I still think that oil price will recover, so I did not capitulate. (Which might be a bad sign :)). Although in Q1 2015 it seemed to me that USA companies were cutting production, but then I saw pretty much all my position companies reporting Y2Y similar sales in barrels (just 0.5x in dollars). So there was not much cut at all. This was time when I started questioning my positions, but it was rather late.
I did not buy much oil in 2014, but I still committed too much too early. Also at the time I bought overlevered - not the worst overlevered, but still overlevered companies that cratered another 50-90% from my buy points.
The smart thing was probably to wait, perhaps it still is. However, stock prices jump up as fast as they drop, so by the time you're sure oil is going above 60, most of these co's will be 2-4x from here...
Anyway, oil was one of my big performance detractors in 2015.
Second big performance detractor: BRK & FRFHF. Did not expect this. Huge underperformance for both compared to SP500. (It was very surprising that MKL otoh performed great. There are some explanations, but not very convincing ones).
Third performance detractor: ROIQW. It was ~1-2% loss overall, but that still pushed return lower.
There were others (DISCA for example, FRMO - this was a valuation mistake simple and clear), but nothing hugely bad. |
