SteveG: >> We'll know a little more next month, but I would bet margins in 98-99 to be in the lower 20s and pricing in the $400/line range <<
It's obvious I have to question every detail in your post. Westell's margins went DOWN ~2% over the last 6 months... now you want to slam Westell by ~12% on margins for the next year.
Gross Margin. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue decreased from 33.1% in the three months ended September 30, 1996 to 31.5% in the three months ended September 30, 1997 and decreased from 34.4% in the six months ended September 30, 1996 to 32.3% for the six months ended September 30, 1997.
sec.gov
>> In relation to my previous shirtcuff projections, I actually overestimated my PE (and therefore, PEG target price) due to using an incorrect number of SO. <<
This is why I need to check everything you post now. I wish I could just rely on your information, but you've proven I can't. My numbers base on PEG, based on 36.5 million shares is ~$40share for Westell's fiscal year 1999.
>> And of course we can argue this ad nauseum, so I will simply refer to the First Call consensus estimates of a FY98 (ending March) loss of <.43> and a FY99 loss of <.01>. <<
These fellow are ALWAYS correct. If a company doesn't beat these number their stock declines...
BA and GTE will have their tariff 1Q98.
>> As far as cable making the headway I suggested from the Forward Concepts report (7MM in 2001) your OWN reference confirms this (from Forrester projection and others). <<
I've stated:
1) cable modem pressure is GOOD for Westell,
2) The HFC plant is at 10%, and for you to give me a single URL supporting your numbers.
>> I am neither long nor short any ADSL stocks, and have no agenda for discussing other than presenting information. <<
Several posts back you indicated that you MAY purchase Westell in the $8-$9 range, but you really don't have an agenda? You're looking to purchase Westell, but you really don't have an agenda... OK.
>> WSTL (according to First Call) has 36.3MM shares. So we would cut my previous estimate approximately in half - this would give a PEG valuation of around $8/share in either 98 <<
Provide the math... I get ~$40/share PEG with 36.5MM share... until later. |
