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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate

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From: weatherguru	1/12/2016 12:21:44 PM
	of 270

El Nino Rumblings: As I said, it has peaked. It's ranks #3 behind 1982/83 & 1997/98. Below is a plot of equatorial depth anomaly of 20C water (y-axis = calendar months & x-axis = longitude). It's like a longitudinal snap shot, where the gray portion 105-120E longitude is ~Australia and other gray portion from 80-55W longitude is ~S. America, and it progresses forward in time (downward). El Nino is the warm water anomalies that progress toward S. America. Once the trade winds kick back up, the cold water get pumped up (La Nina). The current El Nino evolution is in the middle, while the 2 stronger El Nino's are on each side. Note the red line marking the end of the calendar year and what happened after each strong El Nino....strong La Nina. I expect a strong La Nina, especially from how strong the 2008 & 2012 La Nina's were from weaker El Nino's. Add the cooling North Atlantic, and I expect the Earth to drastically cool over the next 4 years. It's not good; I prefer warmth.

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