The charts seem to indicate that we are now at a traditional support level. I have a small position in ligand and am now going to increase that stake by dollar cost averaging over the next few months.
i know that we are waiting for a lot of trials and deals in the wings that may or may not materialize--but i do have enough cofidence in their very rich pipeline to buy when it gets to these levels.
but for those other stocks that are in this sector and others that suffer these types of wild fluctuations holding can be trying indeed--can we to a biopsychiatrist?
i sincerely believe that wall street is being gripped by more fear by the day that this could be a bear market. if there is a bear in the wings there will be only one response from most managers: buy defensive plays like bonds, consumer stocks, and other safe havens--they will sell anything that smells like tech--including bios. that being said, here is my take:
1. japan, korea, ASEAN situation are the triggers that started the whole mess and they will be the trigger to kick into the next upleg.
2. this next downdraft or trading range 6500-8000 will be maintained until sentiment improves with the additional caveat that many managers and analysts say the bull is tired or over.
3. when the asians kick into gear again they will pull up the u.s., canada, europe, and some latins that already have stable economies.
4. if we use mexico as a model, it took about one year for recovery to occur.
5. i am assuming that IN GENERAL we may have buying opportunities over the next 3-6 months until the senitment improves. until then we will only see temporary spikes on good news but the market will labor.
summary (sorry for being so long winded):i feel that, if you have any money left, slowly dollar cost average over the next 3-9 months in many stocks will be seen as a good investment.most bear markets last for about one year and two years is possible but atypical
these are only my random musings, i make as many mistakes or more than the other investor.
good luck to all, merry xmas and let's hope that by the next summer we are in better biospirits. |
