Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 168.76

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3:59 PM EST

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To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (4136)	12/25/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 10921

THC: Well, the scenario is evolving as I have been descibing it on CYMI, VECO and AFR thread since late September. I think that the collapse of demand for semi equipment from Kporea will be followed by retrenchment in Taiwan wher about 16 big Mega fab are on the planning board or atvarious construction stages. The way I see it, the folding of some of the current participants (and I fully expect some participants to fold and tale capacity of the table), will reduce the "urgent" need to move to .25 micron as well as to 300 mm wafers. A lot of the impetus for continuation of the furious investment rates of the last few years in semi was to increase efficiency to saty competitive, but if capacity is taken off line by the weakling, this impetus will be reduced, and we might even have some stability on pricing for six months or so. Even if that unlikely event were to happen, we would still be very much under the normal decline for the Moore curve. Zeev

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