Happy Holidays Maverick!
I hope you will allow me the time to share with you a "fictional" tale about the American Widget Company(AWC).
It seems that AWC was founded by a charismatic leader who had a vision. Shortly after taking AWC public, AWC stock became a "darling of Wall Street". With 18 influential analyst following the company, with 14 buy ratings and 4 hold ratings and glowing quarterly reports coming from AWC management it was easy to understand why AWC stock skyrocketed to $89.00 a share. Shareholders could hardly controll their exuberance over owning shares of AWC.
But then one day in September, rumors began to surface about AWC. Some people were starting to worry. The CEO starts getting worried phone calls from "big" investors who were either getting ready to sell or had already started selling their shares of AWC. The small investor knew nothing about these rumors and only saw the wonderful reports. Well! AWC management had a quick response to these scurrulious rumors. "We're going to do a road show. Just hang on until we can get out there and explain things." Bear Stearns analyst Gary Frazier said he talked to investors who caught the AWC road show. "All were hearing positive news."
But then in early Oct.(Oct 9) a disgruntled individual with an apparent "bone-to-pick" went on the Motley Fool's AOL bulletin board and complained that AWC owed him nearly half million dollars. "And when they finally pay this debt, then the quarter is not going to look very pretty. I wouldn't touch this stock now."
The AWC loyalist on AOL reacted with fury, accussing Mr. Disgruntled of being incompetent, naive, and obtuse. "More than 30 days past due? shot back Boring Portfolios's lead FOOL, Craig Barcus. "I doubt that."
Mr. Disgruntled mused to himself, "I was only trying to give the small investor a different outlook for the stock and try to temper their exuberance for AWC stock." He then lamented, "At least I tried, so now I will just sit back and wait."
Considering the road show had just concluded little did he know that he had to only wait about two weeks.
AWC's charismatic leader announced on October 27th that things were not as great as had been reported. It seems that AWC would have a shortfall of revenues for the quarter of about $111 million dollars plus take a charge of about $50 million. BUT, that he didn't know anything about this until three days before.(He had just been lucky to unload $15.3 million of AWC stock before this revelation.)
The status of AWC's stock that once was $89 is that you can now buy it for under $15.00. So just remember, this is a fictional story but I wouldn't suggest you tell it to shareholders of Oxford Health that owned their stock on October 27, 1997. |
