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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

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To: Robohogs who wrote (22)	1/20/2016 9:10:29 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) of 668

Sentimentrader stuff from CBS. cbsnews.com Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader wrote in a note to clients this weekend that the gap between rising "Smart Money" confidence vs. falling "Dumb Money" confidence had hit levels not seen since the August low. Smart money is based on sentiment measures such as commercial hedge positions in the equity index futures market and the relationship between stocks and bonds, among others, that tend to correctly foresee market turning points. Dumb money confidence is based on the opposite sentiment measures, such as the equity-only put vs. call ratio, that tend to be poor predictors of market turning points. Since 1999, according to Goepfert, there have been 135 other days when the gap between smart and dumb money confidence has been as high as it is now. Over the 30 days that followed, the S&P 500 was positive 113 times (an 83 percent win rate) with a median gain of 4.4 percent. The maximum decline over the next 30 days was 1.9 percent vs. a maximum gain of 6.9 percent.

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