Al, my gut feel is that CY will trade in the 7's to 9's over the next couple of weeks. There is a good chance for a January move into the 10's and 11's, or maybe even more, depending on how much buy and hold money flows into the stock in the first half of January.
If some positve spin on the news coming out of Asia is released during this time frame, the overall market will be helped. Continued negative news out of Asia will dampen the overall market, obviously, but in reality, this will be good news long term for CY for the reasons previously given. If the big money figures this out, CY could trade up as long term money finds the stock.
I think most institutional buy and hold money will avoid the stock until Q1 '98 results become more clear. I think that if good or positive news starts to unfold during Q1, you'll see the stock start to tick upward day by day as the big buy and hold money starts to take a position in the stock in anticipation of CY becoming dominant in the .25 micron market, etc. If the stock does not tick up during Q1, this will be a signal that CY has not got it pointed in the right direction quite yet, and that pricing pressure on SRAMs plus slowness in ramping up new lines will make it tough for CY to meet their own forecasted numbers.... in which event the stock will trade down below 7. All of this is just my " pure gut feel." Remember, we are all on instruments at this point. Best regards. |
