Iqbal,
I think you have poked some major holes in the Forbes analysis which BTW I found quite shallow. I just want to add that it is very incorrect to lump INTC and to some extent TXN with other semis. INTC's main revenue is in Pentium CPUs and its only competitors (quite insignificant at present) are AMD, Cyrix, etc, ....not Samsung, Hyundai, NEC, etc. Indeed semis producing commodity chips like DRAMS will be exposed to price pressures....but not as you correctly pointed out, to the alarming extent indicated in the Forbes article. Currently Korea is a net importer and will find it extremely hard to "dump" their way out of the crisis. IMO Korea and the other ASEAN countries will actually emerge structurally better and stronger in the medium to long term but near term will go thru a lot of pains. Anyone selling capital goods into ASEAN will be significantly impacted by the current crisis, semi equipment manufacturers, telecom infrastructure suppliers, construction companies etc. I think PC makers will be OK, but companies selling "servers" will be impacted.
IMHO
Raj |
