To Steve and All:
This is my first post on this thread. I have followed it off and on for several months.
I was fortunate to buy Applied Materials back in September of 96 for about $12/share and then added to my position on the way up. I recall reading in the WSJ back in September of 96 that most analysts felt that Applied was "dead money" for about a year or so, and that was why they were staying away from it. As for the long term prospects, most seemed to agree that the stock would do well. That is what prompted me to buy it at that time, for I knew that I could wait considerably longer than a year if necessary.
I was looking at a chart this evening of Applied from January 1984 to the present. It is encouraging to note that going all the way back to early 1984, one could have bought at this much of a pull-back (46% from the peak as of yesterday's close) and it would have taken at most about a year to be "permanently" ahead, so to speak (as of its current price). Of course this guarantees nothing, but the point is that if 14 years of history is any guide, then the stock may be a very good buy right now.
At this time I am trying to decide if I should buy more. I am willing to hold for several years, but I would like to be well ahead of the market at that time with any additional purchases. My 2 cents worth is that although there is downside risk, it is probably a good long-term buy right now. I am thinking that the SE Asia problem will not hold the stock down for long, probably less than a year. Long term I think SE Asia will recover and prosper. It also seems that the switch to .25 micron is a plus for the stock over the next couple of years. I wonder what I may be missing, however, with this logic. Are there considerable technical risks that the company faces?, or some other serious concern? Is the management as I good as I think it is? Will an earnings warning hit the stock hard, or is it priced for this already?
Please respond if you have any thoughts on any of the above.
Happy Holidays Everyone, and Best Wishes!
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