<<At 10x25 mil = 250mil.. The company has around that much in CASH.>>
At the end of last Q, APM had $6.81/share in cash and Book value of
$10.22. (I've spent the last hour purusing the 10K).
Current estimates are:
Q1-98 Q2-98 FY-98 FY-99
Current Mean -0.78 -0.14 -0.83 0.40
7-days ago Mean -0.78 -0.14 -0.83 0.40
30-days ago Mean 0.45 0.40 2.58 3.41
60-days ago Mean 0.95 1.13 4.20 -
90-days ago Mean 0.95 1.13 4.20 -
Pretty ugly....If these numbers play out, it also means that book
value will decline in FY98 to around $9.00. (I am including one time
charges that I don't think are included in the estimates). At least
for now, I would not bet on many people believing the 20% gain in
Q2-98 (over Q1-98) until they see it. Without more, I don't believe
that book value alone will stop this stocks decline....some positive
industry news or some cost cutting news from APM (I'm holding my
breath like everyone else) would help though....For that matter, we
may not have even seen all of the bad news yet. Given, too, that it
has only been 2 years since the last "turnaround" was completed,
there probably isn't much faith floating around.
What they made last year and the trailing PE are, IMO, totally
meaningless....
Bottom line, IMO: should it see $10 or less or $8 or less, who knows
or cares; could it see less than $10 or even $8 - absolutely.
Troy |
