RWL - no, the hallowed raiment rests expectantly in a carboard box in my bedroom (if cloth can be capable of expectancy), patient and vigilant for the day gippy closes over $5.00. I'll admit here that when I initiated the contest I thought the game would have surely been over by Christmas. But only relatively recently I've learned that great potential doesn't always mean immediate realization! At the moment Groundhog Day looks a lot better than my 18 October, doesn't it? There are ten participants whose anticipations range(d) from 10/10/97 to your 2/2/98, the last to expire was 12/10. I still welcome new subscribers and am fully confident that we will have a winner in the not-too-distant future.
While I'm on the wire I'd like to take this opportunity to briefly comment on a different subject for which I'd like to see more discussion. It concerns the issue of profitable extraction which is probably the greatest worry to both investors and miners alike. While there seems to be occasional cooperation among the various DD players in pooling new ideas and technological approaches, the dominant theme appears to me to be competitive and individualistic. While it is true that most, if not all of these players would not have achieved what they have without a certain hard-bitten maverick style, I've had a recurrent uncomfortable thought that this rivalry may at this stage do more harm than good. Is it rooted more as a bad habit and belief in zero-sum fantasies (our American mythology) than in fact? If I were a DD CEO, should I really fear the success of my "rivals"? I think not for these reasons: 1) At least for a few years the prices of precious metals will not be significantly affected by DDs succeeding in becoming profitable. Thus, no "prize" for the 1st place finisher (to profitablity) will ever come at other companies' expense. 2) The markets treat these dirts as a sector. If one succeeds, they will all experience a halo effect and benefit from increases in stock prices, because the perception will be a general, rather than specific, favorability. 3) If research talent were pooled and extraction technology shared, all would more likely find profitability a heck of a lot faster than each individually groping around in the dark. I know the odds of all these guys buddying up tomorrow is a bit much to expect, but I think it bears some thought and dialogue. Best of luck to ALL DD investors in '98....cheers, SW |
