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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 680.28

-0.5%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (62)	1/26/2016 12:04:39 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (2) of 668

The AAPL trade as of now looks to get $4.20 credit vs. $1.8 risk using a $6 wide from just below current price. I will look to put some on small on open as it fits my risk reward criteria for this kind of trade. I will look to put more on near the close, adjusting strikes if needed. Risk is gap and go. My expectations are around a meet for EPS/revs with weak guide. I think this would cause flat movement. Maybe volatilely flat but flat. 93/99/99/105 are the strikes. Any price in this range likely is a winner if exited near open given value of long strikes. This trade should work statistically 2/3 of time, and given recent earnings action and high vols - 1.5-2x normal for AAPL earnings, I feel better than that. As for mkt, today bolsters bearish case quite a bit. As I write this we are on a fib retracement level 1872ish from the rally from 1812. Put/calls expanded again. We see more bearish discussion on twitter. And we are closer to taking out any lows. I expected modest down, as noted before, just not this magnitude. Bears are winning with a defense like the Panthers here. But nothng is proven yet. A few charts later.

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