John, You're preaching to the choir with me. I obviously think AMAT is a well-run company with a solid future over the next several years that is currently cheap. What could make it get cheaper? A bad earnings pre-announcement, an unexpectedly deeper Asian crisis, a suggestion that not only Asian orders but US orders are down (There's a scary one). The next couple of quarters will answer most of those questions. The move to sub .25mu and from 200mm to 300mm wafers is on-going, inevitable and very positive for AMAT, IMO.
As to whether you should buy more, I can't say what other people should do with their money. For diversification purposes, it's usually considered prudent not to have more than 5% of one's equity position in any one issue. On the other hand, some people like to swing for the fences and are willing to assume the coincident risks.
BTW, I'm not a big fan of charting (TA), especially long-term. Long-term fundamentals, especially discounted cashflow, does a better job in correlating to stock price. AMAT looks good there, as well.
Best
-Steve |
