Reasonably conservative patient population given for '788...
Based on 6,000 patients US you get around 18,000 WW (developed country only), including 3X population for Japanese EGFR population. However, literature supports up to 8-11% for Exon 20 EGFR, and 3% for Her2, of which ~80% is Exon 20. I believe the higher end of the ranges will prevail as more sensitive diagnostics (NGS) become SOC. Adjusting for above the unmet need is closer to 22,000 in NSCLC. '788 may also be competitive in other EGFR/Her2 mutations, hopefully AACR will shed light on this.
Beyond NSCLC the '788 patent identifies other indications which also have unmet need with Exon 20 mutations, see below for my latest research on these populations. Recent identification (AACR '15) of Her2m CRC patients (~4%) would add another ~15,000 to the list below. So grand total Exon 20 unmet need for '788 could approach 50,000 patients, again more needs to be revealed at AACR.
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