Lets take a look at a couple actual long term major bottoms. Major bottoms form after investors become totally apathetic about the stock market. The number of shares trading will be on the low side of the previous downtrend but higher than the previous day. The 9-1 upside day will be seen for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq in volume but perhaps not in overall issues traded.
Again, because this is so important, the 9-1 upside day volume for the market will be higher than the previous downside day. This will lead to a higher volume upside week and eventually a higher upside volume month too than the period just prior to the downtrend ending.
Here is the data from Tuesday March 10, 2009 when the market last hit a long term major market bottom from the WSJ:
online.wsj.com
Tuesday, March 10, 2009 | NYSE | Latest
close | % Chg from
65-day avg | Previous
close | Week
ago | | Issues traded | 3,199 | 0.1 | 3,190 | 3,208 | | Advances | 2,933 | 97.8 | 892 | 1,015 | | Declines | 230 | -86.0 | 2,231 | 2,122 | | Unchanged | 36 | -51.8 | 67 | 71 | | New highs | 3 | -31.3 | 2 | 3 | | New lows | 93 | -34.6 | 600 | 705 | | Adv. volume* | 2,093,294,700 | 217.4 | 698,053,010 | 864,955,310 | | Decl. volume* | 78,000,450 | -89.9 | 832,189,270 | 1,004,632,622 | | Total volume* | 2,172,945,650 | 49.9 | 1,555,034,057 | 1,885,583,332 | | Closing tick | +1602 | ... | -622 | -557 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 0.48 | ... | 0.48 | 0.56 | | Block trades* | n.a. | ... | 6,204 | 8,508 | | Nasdaq | Latest
close | % Chg from
65-day avg | Previous
close | Week
ago | | Issues traded | 2,944 | 0.2 | 2,942 | 2,920 | | Advances | 2,354 | 81.5 | 800 | 1,003 | | Declines | 459 | -69.4 | 1,966 | 1,753 | | Unchanged | 131 | -6.7 | 176 | 164 | | New highs | 6 | 13.7 | ... | 2 | | New lows | 150 | 9.9 | 451 | 529 | | Adv. volume* | 2,279,455,823 | 132.7 | 528,004,796 | 995,388,393 | | Decl. volume* | 117,842,503 | -88.6 | 1,496,948,738 | 1,342,423,206 | | Total volume* | 2,405,178,177 | 18.2 | 2,041,351,268 | 2,375,328,183 | | Closing tick | +1095 | ... | -771 | -744 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 0.27 | ... | 1.15 | 0.77 | | Block trades* | n.a. | ... | 7,501 | 7,557 | | Alternext | Latest
close | % Chg from
65-day avg | Previous
close | Week
ago | | Issues traded | 637 | -0.8 | 617 | 629 | | Advances | 380 | 33.8 | 186 | 190 | | Declines | 193 | -34.7 | 360 | 369 | | Unchanged | 64 | 2.8 | 71 | 70 | | New highs | 3 | 36.4 | 2 | 2 | | New lows | 26 | 26.6 | 54 | 50 | | Adv. volume* | 7,605,376 | 16.6 | 2,420,067 | 5,493,910 | | Decl. volume* | 5,614,100 | -3.6 | 5,190,520 | 5,637,534 | | Total volume* | 14,798,486 | 7.4 | 8,650,987 | 12,694,844 | | Closing tick | +158 | ... | +27 | -93 | | Closing Arms (TRIN)† | 1.45 | ... | 1.11 | 0.53 | | Block trades* | n.a. | ... | n.a. | n.a. |
*Primary market NYSE & Amex only. † Compares the ratio of advancing to declining issues with the ratio of volume of shares rising and falling. Arms Index or TRIN = (advancing issues / declining issues) / (volume of advancing issues / volume of declining issues.) Generally, an Arms of less than 1.00 indicates buying demand; above 1.00 indicates selling pressure. |
