Slim, you're absolutely correct and I hope we do have some good news coming. I think the early reporting is so that they can get past that black-out period where they're are not able to purchase shares. I don't think it is an indication of either positive or negative earnings relative to estimates. Other than that, the only good news I see is that maybe they overstated the potential declines in production. Until we see the results from Pfizer, I think other good news is up in the air.
As far as the ad campaign goes, I think the longer term impact will be more significant than anything short term due to the Viagra release. Viagra running into a few hurdles is something I can not guess at, so I choose to go with the best scenario for them. They FDA must respond to them in March and from what I understand, Pfizer has all the groundwork done to have an explosive sales and marketing campaign start immediately. Because of this I think it is even more important that Vivus' ad campaign get under way in a timely manner. When those people who Viagra doesn't work for give up on it, they need to know there are other alternatives, of which MUSE should be number one. (Sorry ZONA, but, I don't think Vasomax is all that it's claimed to be, nor Viagra for that matter)
I laid out my opinions earlier, but, what I failed to state was what I intend to do. As the uncertainty clears, I believe our P/E will begin to reflect something reasonable. In the 18-20 until we start getting significant year over year earnings increases again. This should give us a $15 - $20 stock price, which is a nice jump from here. I'm staying in, but, playing the covered call game as well. Try to bring that ugly net cost per share down a bit.
Good luck all,
Gary |
