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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 289.38

-3.4%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (71424)	2/4/2016 12:58:19 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 95411

Simply as a matter of perspective, I'd say that it's too early to say that this cycle has put in it's top. Yes, it's very possible that's where we are at and that we could spend a year or more going down to complete the cycle. However, there is still a possibility that we are in a 2011 type of move where it looks like the end of a cycle but it's not truly over. The move down was 250 points off the high around 1360 to 1110 (off the top of my head) but it never hit the 20% metric, so the market never truly hit the "bear phase". 18% off the recent top of 2130 would be in the 1750ish area but it would still be possible for the market to reach that low and not be ready to make a significant "cycle" low like those of 2002 and 2009. I think it's important to keep this as a point of reference. The sky "isn't" falling until we break 20% as a matter of statistics and likely a lot lower if your scenario of a new cycle low is heading in our direction. I know that the above doesn't fit the pattern of thought for most out. Regardless, I think it's important to keep an open mind about the different possible market moves going forward.

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