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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 118.46-0.8%3:00 PM EST
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To: Thomas J. Smith who wrote (26360)12/26/1997 5:06:00 PM
From: Meathead  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
How about re-iterating your "Computer sales are not what
we thought they'd be" prediction... word has it from all sources
that Dell and Compaq are struggling to keep up with demand
for high-margin richly-configured machines... just call these
companies yourself to confirm. It's gonna be a revenue and
profit margin bonanza in Q4 for the BIG four.

Your message on deteriorating fundamentals do not apply to
four out of the one-hunderd-and-sixty computer outfits in
existence. Those others are the companies with poor fundamentals.
You will be proven incorrect if your assumption is that Dell's
sales are slowing.

As for technicals... Near term is anybodys guess but how observant
of you to notice it's been going down. If one was capable of
drawing a straight trend-line starting from Dells peak of 96 on
12-8, one could extrapolate low 60's to high 50's within 3 weeks! Brilliant! So thats how it's done!

You are neglecting the mini rallies that occur during bear cycles.
Should the bear pattern continue, Dells low will likely be around
$60 during the 3d week of February. By September of 98... look
for >$120, a price which will more closely match Dells fundamentals
during that time period.

Here's a challange for you. Should you be successful, you will gain thread respect and have folks pay more attention to your prognostications as they may have a measure of comfort in knowing
you may be more than just drawing lines on charts.

Calculate full valuation PEG and YPEG for Dell and post your findings. Tell us which valuation model is more appropriate for
a company like Dell.

MEATHEAD
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