We all can point to plenty of stocks (and a number of sectors) which have been in their own individual bear markets. 14 of the stocks in your table showing semis over the past 19 months are also in bear market territory.
Many stocks have had their futures discounted. For me, a key to future performance is sifting through these "falling knives" and finding those that have become under priced by the market....then waiting for an appropriate time to enter. Likewise, we all know RtS is waiting for his indicators to show a buying confirmation by the markets before he'll consider the potential for a significant trend change/bottom call.
One quick look at mining, oil+NG exploration, biotech/pharma shows many companies dramatically discounted over the past year or more (especially the last 5 weeks in bio land!!). As Gottfried's recent chart shows, Transport's PE has been cut in half and the yield has gone up 40% yoy. There will be a number of companies in these sectors (and many others) that will see a huge rebound, IMO...
With the overall market trends being down, I believe it's wise to encourage plenty of patience. Having said this, there's no reason to disregard a stock simply because it's tanking. If we're at the beginning of a major move down in the markets, the blood in the streets will be much greater than we've seen lately. This must be weighed against a good company who's simply out of favor at the moment. It will also be difficult to determine if a stock is in "bounce" mode or truly hitting a "tradable bottom". (beauty is in the eye of the beholder)
If we're in a situation where the "big money" is simply rotating out of the last run's winners and into new sectors and companies that are going to perform better in the future than current expectations would imply, well, that's a great time to be a "good stock picker".
As robert pointed out recently, BRKS CEO indicated that he thought the sector was showing signs of bottoming with respect to future orders. If that's true and not simply company specific (or a misread of the market), then we are likely approaching a time to start accumulating stocks in this sector. |
