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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

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Gottfried

Woody_Nickels

To: Kirk © who wrote (71487)	2/8/2016 5:37:17 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 95405

I would not put AAPL in the same group as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and even Alphabet(Google). AAPL has a P/E of just over 10 and actually pays a dividend. The P/E ratios of those other four stocks are: FB 77 AMZN 390 NFLX 297 GOOGL is the lowest at 29 These high flying stocks may eventually have a lot more upside but one of the things you can count on in a bear market is that basically 90% of all stocks, in every group, will get slammed. Bear markets don't care about valuations either. AAPL will likely fall a lot more as well. Probably not as much. Sentiment is something you are doing a great job of tracking Kirk. That's good but if you would also include more detail on market breadth and volume you will probably be able to totally nail the next major market bottom. I am not giving up on us being able to do that. What I am saying is that it has not happened yet. Overly bearish sentiment is always seen at market bottoms but bear markets don't end with a bang. They end with a whimper when no one wants to even own stocks anymore. Volume usually hits all time highs at market tops and then accelerates with indecision. That followed by periods where selling volume outweighs buying volume until volume is much lower than normal. Eventually the market bottoms when sellers are exhausted and buying begins in force. Look for that 9-1 upside day on higher volume than the previous downside trend for all the major averages. Maybe even a couple of 8-1 days in close succession instead but it has to happen for all the major averages for a real long term bottom. Anyway, we ain't there yet. How low are we going? No idea... but whatever rallies that take place until we get that kind of bottom will fail. JMHO, RtS

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