Howard,
IMHO, the shorts will be dropping off once the stock breaches $30-32
in January. There is very little to move the stock much lower than
$25. The number of funds owning AMAT has increased and investment
in AMAT by funds should increase by mid January in anticipation of
1st quarter earnings results (due in mid Feb). If you look at
Gottfried's charts it seems to indicate that the stock has increased
in value year over year with the low price higher each year except
for '96. I am anticipating a price of between $35-39 by late Jan
or early Feb. Any short hanging on will have himself to blame
(the greed factor). In economic times like these AMAT increases
its market share and dominance over its' rivals in the equipment
business. While it looks like '98 won't break any records it is
likely that the company will aquire key technologies or companies
that don't have the muscle to stay viable without a "white knight"
to supply marketing, sales, and service support "clout". AMAT could
develop and improve these technologies during the lull, which would
allow it to quickly dominate any new market it enters using these
new enabling technologies, just in time for the upturn and 300mm
1-2 years hence.
On another topic, it appears that Korea will get the funding and
support from the world economic community to keep it solvent, but
with some significant belt tightening required. Japan, is still
in trouble but seems to be attempting to stimulate their economy,
this will take some more time, say 6 months or more, before they
turn the corner and start to become prosperous again. Europe is on
the verge of making the EC a reality and things will probably start
to improve as the millenium changes.
Just my opinion,
BB |
