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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.67+1.5%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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Recommended by:
Gottfried
Return to Sender
To: Return to Sender who wrote (71491)2/9/2016 12:33:47 AM
From: The Ox2 Recommendations   of 95406
 
EPS growth from 2014 to 2015

FB 1.77 2.28 28%
AMZN -0.52 1.25 na
NFLX 0.63 0.29 -54%
GOOGL 6.76 8.67 28%

GOOGL is the only one that's PE is "in line" with their actual EPS growth. AMZN is "hard to say" because they didn't have positive earnings in the previous year.

I have no clue on NFLX, except it looks massively over priced.

Here's what I wrote recently about FB and that I thought $100 was "close" to fair value:

(3.14 + 0.31) x 29 = $100

2016 $3.14 EPS estimate times 1.1 (since lately they've beat estimates every quarter) x 29% EPS growth rate (trailing yoy non-gaap rate from 2014-15) gives a $100 price target.

This does not account for their cash on hand, obviously but I think that using the forward estimate is more than generous.

29 x 2.28 = $66 plus $18 cash = $84 trailing value. The company more than deserves a higher multiple in my opinion. This is partially based on their ability to grow revs and eps at a very strong clip, while still investing in new avenues.

One can make a case for 35 PE on forward EPS of 3.14 plus $20 cash = $130 price target in 12 months.....
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