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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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Donald Wennerstrom

FJB

To: John Pitera who wrote (71546)	2/10/2016 9:24:34 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95420

I try not to take too much credit for stating what I think is obvious. Stocks simply don't rise forever. Recessions and bear markets are all normal parts of economic cycles. The Fed has created an asset bubble. Bob is not wrong when he says that companies we follow have generally been doing pretty well with earnings and outlooks. That said most people who look at the stock market think that market valuations should be based upon the expectations they have come to expect from 1990 forward. That kind of thinking will be right until it is no longer right. I think unless we see major changes in the way our youth is motivated to seek higher education and be rewarded for their efforts that the market will end up reverting to long term means for the P/E on the S&P 500. multpl.com How low would the S&P 500 go if the P/E fell to the lows in the 1980's? History does repeat itself. Bull markets run their course. Recessions happen. Bear markets happen and investors sometimes hate the stock market so much that even an S&P 500 P/E ratio below 10 does not look enticing. Am I saying that is coming anytime soon? No... but I would not rule it out. And I do see it happening in my lifetime if we don't find a way to make our youth believe in the American dream again. What I see now is way too many people out of work. Way too many kids not even interested in a college education. Many who have tried to get an education fail to find the right major or make the correct connections to find a good job. Well... most here have heard me rant on this subject numerous times. Unfortunately being out out today for my surgery has not improved my personalty guys! I totally agree with Bob on what he is saying about banks. More companies should have gone bankrupt back before the Fed stepped in and took on so much debt for us all. It's 7 years later and the problems have only been hidden better. They still exist. Regardless, the market will fall... and it will rise again. Fear and greed. Americans are ultimately very optimistic and that includes me. Re

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