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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 207.36

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Earlie who wrote (26095)	12/27/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (2) of 53903

Earlie, FWIW Tom "the best there is" Kurlak had an typically interesting quote in a EBN piece dated 12/8/97: Analyst Thomas Kurlak of Merrill Lynch & Co., in New York, said the semiconductor industry is in the throes of a major market correction -- the kind that can take several years to resolve itself. "It's a slowdown that started in August and has been gaining momentum," Kurlak said. "We're concerned it will get worse before it gets better." techweb.com That's an interesting statement when you consider that this was the same person who had his name at the top of an August 6th ML research comment which on page 1 contained the following bullet points under the heading "Investment Highlights": "Sales and orders gaining strength" "4Q conditions appear right for further advance in stocks and then contains the following lead on page 2: The best of all hoped for scenarios is developing for Q4 for the semiconductor stocks... Logically speaking, since Tom "the best there is" Kurlak is not only an "honest broker", but is also "smart", we have an interesting little syllogism on our hands: Premise A: The statements contained in the 8/6/97 comment were to the best of his knowledge accurate. Premise B: The statement attributed to him in the 12/8/97 EBN piece was to the best of his knowledge accurate. Conclusion: It is utterly reasonable to call into question the predictive validity of a system of methods which while on the cusp of a major market correction would term it instead "the best of all hope for scenarios for Q4". That's how the Jesuits taught me logic... ...but then again, since this is Wall Street, using logic is like trying to take on the People's Liberation Army with a feather <g> Good trading, Tom

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