DW:
Regarding Vivus, the approval for the UK was announced in the press on Dec. 1, 1997, as I asserted. You have confused the the UK approval date approval date with the US approval date which was in January, 1997. My posting specifically stated the long anticipated UK approval
which did in fact take place on Dec. 1, 1997. Although the situation with VVUS is obviously complex and other factors have apparently contributed to its stock price decline, the facts I stated in my posting were correct and nothing was "fabricated".
The second company I used as an example to illustrate a general priinciple was Ligand, not Ligent as you stated. It recently announced long anticipated positive phase III clinical result for it
drug Panretin Gel for Kaposi's sarcoma; an NDA is planned in first quater, 1998, and is important as it will be its first approved product and will demonstrate the safety and efficacy of its new technology. My recollection was incorrect in that I thought that the drug had been approved; what had recently occurred was an announcement
on favorable US clinical studies which are critical to a submission; I regret any confusion caused by this, but I do not think it negates the
home principle.
It appears to me that you missed the general investment principle these examples are given to illustrate; i.e. good news is built into
stock prices. The principle is new nor is it my idea but I have certainly been reminded of it recently with the above mentioned companies. The good news which did materialize did not cause their decline, but they did not result in the price rise expected by their followers on SI, nor did they protect them from the general decline
in biotech stocks.
I am disappointed that you questioned my motives; that was uncalled for. For your information I hold a long position in NVX and am optimistic on its prospects. I do think a balanced picture
is necessary in discussing a stock because nothing is guaranteed, neither FDA approval, profitable operations after approval, nor a dramatic price rise. I don't think the readers of this thread will suddenly become fearful because of such basic observations.
Season's greetings
David |
