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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary
SPY 683.47+0.6%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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From: Robohogs2/18/2016 12:00:53 AM
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Things I am thinking:
  1. Lots of key resistance coming up. I think there is a very high chance we do not stop this week but then, I do not know. Repeat: it may keep going for a few more days. I have hedges I need to fix. Historically, 3 1+% moves in a row have mixed future results. Answer to me is obvious. They happen in bear mkts or new bull mkts. In bears, down you go. In bulls, up. Statistical studies do no good. Day 4 in most cases is down but do to mis-positioning this may be exception.
  2. In agreement with 1, I saw a quote today where a money manager literally says he has not bought yet and hence he needs it back below 1800 and therefore he will get it. Excuse me? His language not quite so blunt but that is essence. Key of mkt is to force key participants to miss good moves.
  3. Another said things not so bad but because we had no intermediate corrections, we need 20% and 14% just not enough. How does one say 20 ok, 14 (sic) - actually 15-16% on SPX and near 20% on Nazz not?
  4. Bio indices and most other indices above all key TRADING moving averages: 5, 8, 13 and in some cases 21. 5 crossing above 8 in all cases. 8/13 next.
  5. Bio bounced off longer term trend lines. I think most would accept zero percent for year. Long way away but at least algos less likely to fire shorts with mkt above 5 and 8 day averages.
  6. Looks to me like transports busted their bear flag to upside.
  7. Weekly SPX charts still ok but dailies a mess. 1960 area key. But even then MAs downward sloping.
  8. This was a real panic with lots of stocks below stupid measures of value.
  9. Still a bear for now.
  10. Fibqueen has turning point down next week. She is hedging saying low looks important. I take that to mean she thought nks partial retraces vs bew leg down.
  11. Oscillators in some cases are overbought and in most cases will be there soon. 1 - good to see overbought mkt go up. 2 - we will have down days soon.
  12. Tons of positive divergences at the lows. New lows not at peaks. RSI higher. Etc.
  13. Lots of economists and strategists capitulated. I think all of this and the panic selling related to recency bias - must crash 50%. Mkt knows what we do not. Etc.
  14. Utes best acting group stock wise and drove industrial production numbers. Increase from utes was more than total increase despite a 10-12% weighting. Oil and gas was the big drag. As posted here before, weakness not concentrated and measures dispersed.
Jon
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