to all: more posts..
notice he said "ranging"..
all of these posts are to "see what others think, and open your eyes"..
see if they confirm with YOUR TA signals.. (to maintain objectivity)
this is how traders make money.. making profits on EVERY up and down swing... traders should rule in this mkt..
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Subject: Tech Stock Options
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To: Patrick Slevin (31993 )
From: donald sew Saturday, Dec 27 1997 7:50AM EST
Reply # of 31999
INDEX UPDATE
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I am not a bear or bull, but just attempting to read the direction of the market. Since my technical analysis is more accurate for the short-term, I attempt to go after every ripple, up or down.
As of right now the short-term trend is still up on the basis that the bottom of this cycle was the lows of last Friday (12/19) and that we will not revisit them for the short-term. I have noticed on a technical basis that this up cycle, which is still intact, is also very weak. Many may argue what up cycle, in light of last Tuesdays negative performance of the DOW dropping 128 points. The key that I am following is that the lows(intraday) of 12/19 have not yet been tested, so we are still up from that point.
I am getting more technical signals on both sides for the longer term(10-30 days) - some saying that we will continue up and that we are in an uptrend, and some saying that we are going lower and will set new lows. Since these mid-term signals are mixed I will interpret them to say that we are RANGE TRADING. As of this time I believe that we will be trading in the following ranges:
DOW 7550-8100
SPX 920-990
The Korean market was up very slightly last nite, and I feel that there be a TECHNICAL DELAYED DIP, whereby it may dip or even retest its lows. If it does retest it lows and they hold it would be a double bottom formation.
The N225(JAPAN) - last week I called for a CLASS 1 BUY and it did move up quickly and did gain over 5% on an intraday basis. (BUY IN POINT AT 14569 & intraday high of over 15300). On Friday it retraced hard and I believe it is also performing a TECHNICAL DELAY DIP and will retest the 14569 lows. If it holds, it too will be a double bottom and the N225 could continue its uptrend over the 15300 levels.
The likelihood is that the Korean and Japan markets may dip over the next 1-3 days, then up from there. I will allow others to conclude how the Korean & Japan markets will effect ours over the next few days.
In light of what the technicals are telling me, I my be buying calls on any dip, but on a run-up to where my TA reaches overbought, which wont take much, I will close out and initiate PUTS.
One signal that hinted that this short-term upswing may still be intact is the nice performance of the NAZ on Friday, which lead the market. Per my guitar, I interpreted it that the NAZ has reached the bottom for the short-term and that the bias is to the upside slightly.
For those who are playing PUTs currently, my question is whether the PUT/SHORT volume for JAN expiration is great enough for a short squeeze. From what I heard so far, am leaning towards the the view that the PUT/SHORT volume is up but not by any huge amount.
I had called for a CLASS 1 & 2 buys on MSFT, BKX,XAL and they did work on Friday but would have to say that it was not with any great conviction. MSFT was up 1 13/16 on Friday, and if it continues up on Monday it will also help confirm the turnaround in the HiTechs, per my TA.
Happy holidays. |
